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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
5
6
1
0
10
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
31
21
42
94
1
0
5
6
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
45
45
0
0
0
0
9
0
45
55
9
0
91
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
30
20
40
90
1
0
5
6
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 -- 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 4.48 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.179 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.223 0.094
equitable threat score:
-0.082 0.000 -0.082
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.029 0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.096
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.777 0.167
samples: 11 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 10.48 %coverage: 100.00