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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
4
5
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
21
48
100
1
0
4
5
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
80
100
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
20
46
95
1
0
4
5
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.76 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.210 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.013 0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.790 0.200
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00