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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
1
0
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
21
49
101
1
0
3
4
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
75
100
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
20
47
96
1
0
3
4
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.229
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.81 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.058
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.792 0.250
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00