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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
29
47
99
0
1
5
6
23
30
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
28
45
94
0
1
5
6
22
29
50
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.30 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.290 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.967 0.096
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.707 0.167
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00