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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
2
1
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
24
34
41
99
1
1
1
3
26
35
43
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
20
40
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
60
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
23
33
39
95
1
1
1
3
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.83 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.037 0.340 0.022
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.000 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.010 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.038 0.971 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.657 0.667
samples: 5 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 4.81 %coverage: 100.00