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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
9
2
17
6
9
2
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
24
33
87
6
9
2
17
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
53
12
100
35
53
12
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
23
32
84
6
9
2
16
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.118 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 8.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.64 0.49
Heidke skill score: -0.324 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.104
Kuipers skill score: -0.324 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.118
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.053 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.727 0.057
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.724 0.882
samples: 17 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 16.35 %coverage: 100.00