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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
7
4
17
6
7
4
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
26
31
87
6
7
4
17
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
41
24
100
35
41
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
25
30
84
6
7
4
16
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.288
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.64 0.49
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: -0.067
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.047
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: -0.067
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.235
threat score:
0.000 0.277 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.788 0.114
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.701 0.765
samples: 17 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 16.35 %coverage: 100.00