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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
35
31
33
99
0
0
0
0
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
40
40
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
34
30
32
95
0
0
0
0
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.025 0.307 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.019 -0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 0.939 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.687 0.000
samples: 5 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 4.81 %coverage: 100.00