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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
35
32
33
100
0
0
0
0
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
34
31
32
96
0
0
0
0
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.03 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.026 0.317 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.010 0.004 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 0.970 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.680 0.000
samples: 4 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 3.85 %coverage: 100.00