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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
35
33
33
101
0
0
0
0
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
67
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
34
32
32
97
0
0
0
0
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 3.06 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.010
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.010
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.026 0.327 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.001 0.014 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.673 0.000
samples: 3 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 2.88 %coverage: 100.00