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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
3
13
0
0
0
0
1
5
1
7
4
12
4
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
3
13
28
30
26
84
1
5
1
7
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
35
15
65
0
0
0
0
5
25
5
35
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
3
13
27
29
25
81
1
5
1
7
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.00 0.23
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.010
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.010
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.087
threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.100
threat score:
0.071 0.312 0.028
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.000 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.063 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.094 0.714 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.643 0.857
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00