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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
1
14
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
6
11
6
3
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
1
14
21
36
27
84
1
3
2
6
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
15
5
70
0
0
0
0
5
15
10
30
55
30
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
1
13
20
35
26
81
1
3
2
6
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.462
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.27 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 2.00 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.192
true Heidke skill score: 0.298 true Heidke skill score: 0.126
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.192
true Kuipers skill score: 0.291 true Kuipers skill score: 0.117
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.278 0.400 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.315 0.000 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.180 0.037 0.008
probability of detection:
0.909 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.312 0.857 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.571 0.667
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00