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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
1
3
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
15
15
23
53
1
0
2
3
16
18
27
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
38
25
63
0
0
0
0
13
0
25
38
13
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
25
25
38
87
2
0
3
5
26
30
44
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.279
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 2.94 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.026 true Kuipers skill score: -0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.268 0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.116 0.000 0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.067 -0.016 0.025
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.717 0.333
samples: 8 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 13.11 %coverage: 100.00