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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
7
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
1
5
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
7
15
13
23
51
1
0
2
3
16
18
27
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
20
70
0
0
0
0
10
0
20
30
10
50
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
3
11
25
21
38
84
2
0
3
5
26
30
44
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 0.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 2.83 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.131
true Heidke skill score: 0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.131
true Kuipers skill score: 0.017 true Kuipers skill score: -0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.232 0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.096 0.000 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.087 -0.050 0.025
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.722 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.745 0.333
samples: 10 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 16.39 %coverage: 100.00