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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
5
1
12
6
5
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
27
38
93
6
5
1
12
34
32
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
42
8
100
50
42
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
26
36
89
6
5
1
11
32
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 12.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.91 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.066
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.276 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 -0.076
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.026
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.917
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.710 0.917
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00