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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
10
2
3
15
10
2
4
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
24
30
35
89
10
2
3
15
34
32
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
63
13
19
94
63
13
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
23
29
33
85
10
2
3
14
32
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.00 3.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.78 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: -0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: -0.162 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.188
threat score:
0.000 0.330 0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.060 0.000 -0.061
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.045 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.663 0.800
samples: 16 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 15.24 %coverage: 100.00