CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
9
2
3
14
9
2
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
25
30
35
90
9
2
3
14
34
32
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
0
0
0
60
13
20
93
60
13
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
24
29
33
86
9
2
3
13
32
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.81 0.36
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: -0.161 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.326 0.060
equitable threat score:
-0.064 0.000 -0.065
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.040 -0.049
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.786
samples: 15 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00