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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
10
18
0
0
0
0
2
4
4
10
4
10
14
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
10
18
15
10
8
33
2
4
4
10
19
20
22
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
21
36
64
0
0
0
0
7
14
14
36
14
36
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
10
16
30
25
16
13
54
3
7
7
16
31
33
36
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 1.65 0.45
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: -0.107
true Heidke skill score: -0.077 true Heidke skill score: -0.098
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: -0.107
true Kuipers skill score: -0.093 true Kuipers skill score: -0.099
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.057 0.233 0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.000 -0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.123 -0.025 0.016
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.105 0.500 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.697 0.600
samples: 28 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 45.90 %coverage: 100.00