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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
13
24
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
7
5
10
16
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
13
24
14
10
6
30
1
3
3
7
19
20
22
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
23
42
77
0
0
0
0
3
10
10
23
16
32
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
21
39
23
16
10
49
2
5
5
11
31
33
36
100

hitrate: 0.226 hitrate: 0.279
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.80 0.00 0.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.26 1.50 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.161 Heidke skill score: -0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.069
Kuipers skill score: -0.161 Kuipers skill score: -0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.026 true Kuipers skill score: -0.070
threat score:
0.160 0.000 0.150
threat score:
0.103 0.250 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.006 0.000 -0.037
equitable threat score:
-0.110 0.005 0.020
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.188
probability of detection:
0.211 0.500 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.667 0.571
samples: 31 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 50.82 %coverage: 100.00