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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
7
17
2
8
7
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
26
26
88
2
8
7
17
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
47
41
100
12
47
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
25
25
84
2
8
7
16
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.59 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.412
threat score:
0.000 0.271 0.163
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 0.044
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.765 0.212
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.588
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.705 0.588
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00