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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
6
10
1
3
6
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
31
27
95
1
3
6
10
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
30
60
100
10
30
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
30
26
90
1
3
6
10
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.79 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.316 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.912 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.674 0.400
samples: 10 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00