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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
1
7
2
4
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
30
32
98
2
4
1
7
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
57
14
100
29
57
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
29
30
93
2
4
1
7
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.88 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.025 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.857
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00