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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
3
9
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
30
30
96
2
4
3
9
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
44
33
100
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
29
29
91
2
4
3
9
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.82 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.688 0.667
samples: 9 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 8.57 %coverage: 100.00