CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
3
13
3
7
3
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
27
30
92
3
7
3
13
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
54
23
100
23
54
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
26
29
88
3
7
3
12
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.71 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.054
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.055
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.070
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.040 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.794 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.707 0.769
samples: 13 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 12.38 %coverage: 100.00