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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
2
12
3
7
2
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
27
31
93
3
7
2
12
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
58
17
100
25
58
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
26
30
89
3
7
2
11
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.36
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.069
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.070
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.047
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.045 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.794 0.061
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.710 0.833
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00