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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
9
4
21
0
0
0
0
3
3
6
12
11
12
10
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
9
4
21
10
11
7
28
3
3
6
12
21
23
17
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
27
12
64
0
0
0
0
9
9
18
36
33
36
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
15
7
34
16
18
11
46
5
5
10
20
34
38
28
100

hitrate: 0.424 hitrate: 0.410
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.22 0.71
Heidke skill score: 0.136 Heidke skill score: 0.115
true Heidke skill score: 0.150 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.136 Kuipers skill score: 0.115
true Kuipers skill score: 0.153 true Kuipers skill score: 0.096
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.235 0.275 0.261
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.000 0.191
equitable threat score:
0.029 0.015 0.135
probability of detection:
0.727 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.381 0.478 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.619 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.619 0.607 0.500
samples: 33 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 54.10 %coverage: 100.00