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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
5
21
0
0
0
0
4
7
4
15
11
16
9
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
5
21
10
7
8
25
4
7
4
15
21
23
17
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
25
14
58
0
0
0
0
11
19
11
42
31
44
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
8
34
16
11
13
41
7
11
7
25
34
38
28
100

hitrate: 0.306 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.09 0.88
Heidke skill score: -0.042 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.032 true Heidke skill score: -0.071
Kuipers skill score: -0.042 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.070
threat score:
0.280 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.200 0.171 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.031 0.000 0.015
equitable threat score:
-0.008 -0.077 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.636 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.333 0.304 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.720 0.733
samples: 36 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 59.02 %coverage: 100.00