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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
3
16
0
0
0
0
2
5
3
10
9
11
6
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
3
16
12
12
11
35
2
5
3
10
21
23
17
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
23
12
62
0
0
0
0
8
19
12
38
35
42
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
10
5
26
20
20
18
57
3
8
5
16
34
38
28
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.361
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.78 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.76 1.52 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.041
true Heidke skill score: 0.119 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.041
true Kuipers skill score: 0.128 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.389 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.233 0.261 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.117 0.000 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.061 -0.036 0.010
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.333 0.522 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.657 0.700
samples: 26 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 42.62 %coverage: 100.00