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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
0
0
0
0
2
3
8
13
2
6
9
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
31
35
22
88
2
3
8
13
33
41
31
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
18
6
24
0
0
0
0
12
18
47
76
12
35
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
30
33
21
84
2
3
8
12
31
39
30
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.410
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.15 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.065 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.372 0.222
equitable threat score:
-0.085 0.000 0.157
equitable threat score:
-0.035 0.011 0.129
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.854 0.258
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.602 0.385
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00