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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
3
18
0
0
0
0
5
5
6
16
17
8
9
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
3
18
9
13
5
27
5
5
6
16
26
21
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
9
9
53
0
0
0
0
15
15
18
47
50
24
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
5
5
30
15
21
8
44
8
8
10
26
43
34
23
100

hitrate: 0.529 hitrate: 0.508
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 0.00 1.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 1.29 1.14
Heidke skill score: 0.294 Heidke skill score: 0.262
true Heidke skill score: 0.229 true Heidke skill score: 0.257
Kuipers skill score: 0.294 Kuipers skill score: 0.262
true Kuipers skill score: 0.224 true Kuipers skill score: 0.262
threat score:
0.522 0.000 0.316
threat score:
0.375 0.371 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.178 0.144 0.115
probability of detection:
0.706 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.462 0.619 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.519 0.625
samples: 34 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 55.74 %coverage: 100.00