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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
2
2
16
0
0
0
0
4
2
8
14
16
4
10
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
2
2
16
10
17
4
31
4
2
8
14
26
21
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
7
7
53
0
0
0
0
13
7
27
47
53
13
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
3
3
26
16
28
7
51
7
3
13
23
43
34
23
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.607
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 1.48 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.410
true Heidke skill score: 0.405 true Heidke skill score: 0.404
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.410
true Kuipers skill score: 0.386 true Kuipers skill score: 0.413
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.400 0.486 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.302 0.000 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.223 0.260 0.285
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.462 0.810 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.452 0.429
samples: 30 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 49.18 %coverage: 100.00