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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
2
18
0
0
0
0
1
4
1
6
13
8
3
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
2
18
13
13
11
37
1
4
1
6
26
21
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
17
8
75
0
0
0
0
4
17
4
25
54
33
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
7
3
30
21
21
18
61
2
7
2
10
43
34
23
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.426
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 1.76 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: 0.139
true Heidke skill score: 0.185 true Heidke skill score: 0.107
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: 0.139
true Kuipers skill score: 0.180 true Kuipers skill score: 0.107
threat score:
0.632 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.375 0.289 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.243 0.000 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.178 0.008 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.923 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.462 0.619 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.649 0.833
samples: 24 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 39.34 %coverage: 100.00