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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
7
3
2
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
0
8
28
37
28
93
0
2
2
4
35
40
30
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
58
8
0
67
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
33
58
25
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
0
8
27
35
27
89
0
2
2
4
33
38
29
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 2.33 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.550 true Heidke skill score: 0.103
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.537 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.875 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.194 0.385 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.700 0.000 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.130 0.026 0.028
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.200 0.925 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.602 0.500
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00