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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
34
40
28
102
0
0
0
0
35
40
30
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
67
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
32
38
27
97
0
0
0
0
33
38
29
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.390
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.55 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.027 0.392 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.018 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.029 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.608 0.000
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00