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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
33
39
28
100
0
0
0
0
35
40
30
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
20
40
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
31
37
27
95
0
0
0
0
33
38
29
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.390
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.50 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.053 0.386 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.009 0.014 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.057 0.975 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.610 0.000
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00