CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
4
27
0
0
0
0
3
4
11
18
18
12
15
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
4
27
4
8
4
16
3
4
11
18
22
20
19
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
18
9
60
0
0
0
0
7
9
24
40
40
27
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
13
7
44
7
13
7
26
5
7
18
30
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.578 hitrate: 0.557
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.23 0.80 0.95
Heidke skill score: 0.367 Heidke skill score: 0.336
true Heidke skill score: 0.326 true Heidke skill score: 0.332
Kuipers skill score: 0.367 Kuipers skill score: 0.336
true Kuipers skill score: 0.311 true Kuipers skill score: 0.330
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.441 0.286 0.423
equitable threat score:
0.219 0.000 0.312
equitable threat score:
0.217 0.121 0.264
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.733
probability of detection:
0.682 0.400 0.579
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.000 0.389
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.500 0.389
samples: 45 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 73.77 %coverage: 100.00