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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
6
4
25
0
0
0
0
4
4
9
17
19
10
13
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
6
4
25
3
10
6
19
4
4
9
17
22
20
19
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
14
10
60
0
0
0
0
10
10
21
40
45
24
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
10
7
41
5
16
10
31
7
7
15
28
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.557
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.32 0.00 1.31
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.95 0.89
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.336
true Heidke skill score: 0.292 true Heidke skill score: 0.333
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.336
true Kuipers skill score: 0.275 true Kuipers skill score: 0.332
threat score:
0.517 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.469 0.345 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.209 0.000 0.238
equitable threat score:
0.260 0.166 0.171
probability of detection:
0.789 0.000 0.692
probability of detection:
0.682 0.500 0.474
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.471
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.474 0.471
samples: 42 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 68.85 %coverage: 100.00