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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
8
4
25
0
0
0
0
3
5
13
21
16
13
17
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
8
4
25
6
7
2
15
3
5
13
21
22
20
19
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
17
9
54
0
0
0
0
7
11
28
46
35
28
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
13
7
41
10
11
3
25
5
8
21
34
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.565 hitrate: 0.541
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.56 0.00 1.24
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.75 1.11
Heidke skill score: 0.348 Heidke skill score: 0.311
true Heidke skill score: 0.323 true Heidke skill score: 0.309
Kuipers skill score: 0.348 Kuipers skill score: 0.311
true Kuipers skill score: 0.313 true Kuipers skill score: 0.309
threat score:
0.464 0.000 0.520
threat score:
0.382 0.250 0.481
equitable threat score:
0.223 0.000 0.304
equitable threat score:
0.159 0.090 0.316
probability of detection:
0.812 0.000 0.765
probability of detection:
0.591 0.350 0.684
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.480 0.000 0.381
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.480 0.533 0.381
samples: 46 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 75.41 %coverage: 100.00