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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
4
19
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
12
11
10
10
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
4
19
11
10
9
30
1
5
6
12
22
20
19
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
32
16
13
61
0
0
0
0
3
16
19
39
35
32
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
8
7
31
18
16
15
49
2
8
10
20
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.516 hitrate: 0.426
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.73 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 1.50 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.274 Heidke skill score: 0.139
true Heidke skill score: 0.264 true Heidke skill score: 0.137
Kuipers skill score: 0.274 Kuipers skill score: 0.139
true Kuipers skill score: 0.261 true Kuipers skill score: 0.137
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.323 0.250 0.240
equitable threat score:
0.246 0.000 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.130 0.005 0.106
probability of detection:
0.909 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.455 0.500 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.474 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.474 0.667 0.500
samples: 31 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 50.82 %coverage: 100.00