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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
6
4
24
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
17
8
6
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
6
4
24
5
12
13
30
3
2
2
7
22
20
19
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
45
19
13
77
0
0
0
0
10
6
6
23
55
26
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
10
7
39
8
20
21
49
5
3
3
11
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.516 hitrate: 0.459
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.41 0.00 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.09 1.50 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.274 Heidke skill score: 0.189
true Heidke skill score: 0.090 true Heidke skill score: 0.182
Kuipers skill score: 0.274 Kuipers skill score: 0.189
true Kuipers skill score: 0.080 true Kuipers skill score: 0.181
threat score:
0.519 0.000 0.182
threat score:
0.438 0.316 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.000 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.229 0.077 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.824 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.636 0.600 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.417 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.417 0.600 0.714
samples: 31 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 50.82 %coverage: 100.00