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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
4
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
4
15
23
34
34
91
0
0
0
0
32
36
38
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
60
13
27
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
13
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
4
14
22
32
32
86
0
0
0
0
30
34
36
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.406
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.53 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.108
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.107
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.108
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.107
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.237 0.366 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.134 0.050 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.281 0.944 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.626 0.000
samples: 15 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 14.15 %coverage: 100.00