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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
28
34
37
99
0
0
0
0
32
36
38
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
57
29
14
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
57
29
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
26
32
35
93
0
0
0
0
30
34
36
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.75 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.114 0.337 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.944 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.657 0.000
samples: 7 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 6.60 %coverage: 100.00