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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
3
3
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
29
33
34
96
0
2
3
5
32
36
38
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
10
10
50
0
0
0
0
0
20
30
50
30
30
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
27
31
32
91
0
2
3
5
30
34
36
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.67 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.052
true Heidke skill score: 0.385 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.052
true Kuipers skill score: 0.379 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.088 0.333 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.006 0.032
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.094 0.917 0.079
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.656 0.400
samples: 10 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 9.43 %coverage: 100.00