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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
10
29
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
13
10
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
10
29
16
12
4
32
0
0
0
0
22
25
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
45
34
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
45
34
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
21
16
48
26
20
7
52
0
0
0
0
36
41
23
100

hitrate: 0.207 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.83 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.32 1.28 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.190 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.149
Kuipers skill score: -0.190 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.141
threat score:
0.207 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.133 0.267 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.129 -0.035 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.273 0.480 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.793 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.793 0.625 0.000
samples: 29 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 47.54 %coverage: 100.00