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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
14
9
31
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
11
16
11
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
14
9
31
11
9
3
23
3
2
2
7
22
25
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
37
24
82
0
0
0
0
8
5
5
18
29
42
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
23
15
51
18
15
5
38
5
3
3
11
36
41
23
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.311
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.82 0.00 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.41 0.92 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.033
true Heidke skill score: -0.037 true Heidke skill score: -0.083
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.033
true Kuipers skill score: -0.040 true Kuipers skill score: -0.081
threat score:
0.235 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.178 0.231 0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.000 -0.002
equitable threat score:
-0.094 -0.014 0.023
probability of detection:
0.727 0.000 0.182
probability of detection:
0.364 0.360 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.742 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.742 0.609 0.714
samples: 38 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 62.30 %coverage: 100.00