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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
16
11
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
16
11
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
16
11
37
12
9
3
24
0
0
0
0
22
25
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
43
30
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
43
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
26
18
61
20
15
5
39
0
0
0
0
36
41
23
100

hitrate: 0.270 hitrate: 0.311
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.70 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.68 0.96 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.095 Heidke skill score: -0.033
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.111
Kuipers skill score: -0.095 Kuipers skill score: -0.033
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.270 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.204 0.225 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.094 -0.028 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.455 0.360 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.730 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.730 0.625 0.000
samples: 37 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 60.66 %coverage: 100.00