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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
8
22
0
0
0
0
4
3
2
9
9
12
10
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
8
22
13
13
4
30
4
3
2
9
22
25
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
29
26
71
0
0
0
0
13
10
6
29
29
39
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
15
13
36
21
21
7
49
7
5
3
15
36
41
23
100

hitrate: 0.226 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.44 0.00 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.20 0.64
Heidke skill score: -0.161 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: -0.105 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.161 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: -0.112 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.192 0.000 0.118
threat score:
0.128 0.310 0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.000 -0.064
equitable threat score:
-0.094 0.024 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.556 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.227 0.520 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.773 0.000 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.773 0.567 0.778
samples: 31 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 50.82 %coverage: 100.00