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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
9
26
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
12
9
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
9
26
17
13
5
35
0
0
0
0
22
25
14
61

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
46
35
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
46
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
20
15
43
28
21
8
57
0
0
0
0
36
41
23
100

hitrate: 0.192 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.20 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.18 1.40 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.212 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.153
Kuipers skill score: -0.212 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.144
threat score:
0.192 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.116 0.277 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.130 -0.041 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.227 0.520 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.808 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.808 0.629 0.000
samples: 26 out of 61 samples: 61 out of 61
%coverage: 42.62 %coverage: 100.00