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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
11
8
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
11
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
11
8
20
38
30
17
85
0
0
0
0
39
41
25
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
55
40
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
55
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
10
8
19
36
29
16
81
0
0
0
0
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.050 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
20.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.51 2.07 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.425 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.149
Kuipers skill score: -0.425 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.140
threat score:
0.050 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.017 0.312 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.127 -0.051 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.732 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.950 0.647 0.000
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00