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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
39
40
24
103
0
0
0
0
39
41
25
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
37
38
23
98
0
0
0
0
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.51 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.003 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.976 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.612 0.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00